Betting on Longshots, and Winning
The number of times has you played a heavy favorite, only to lose the bet? Just because the books make you pay a lot to bank on group does not mean the game is a lock. Find more info on here.
Every year I win a number of bets that pay out +300 or more. Most of the video games that pay that high are really bad bets. The trick remains in understanding how to identify when those teams do have a great chance of winning the game, no matter what the bookie says.
This is particularly early in the period, when a lot of what the books base their viewpoint on his last years performance and speculation. Take first three weeks of the 2013 NFL season.
In week one, the books and bettors figured the worst defense in the league last year would be the worst once again this year, so I won 275 on Tennessee. Tennessee has a brand-new individual high up in the defensive coaching staff that was largely accountable for the Saints winning the Super Bowl in 09. The Titans have actually had a much better defense because of that addition. The gamblers are still unaware.
In week 3, Indianapolis played the 49ers, and paid out +400 for a 27-7 win. Their QB is off to a bad start, and so is the rest of the team.
A thing about these games is that, from all I could see in the early stats is that they ought to have been much closer to even money than they were. The books understand that the gamblers are going heavy on last year’s results, which implies they have to pay huge amounts of money simply to obtain a bet on a team that did not have an excellent season the previous year.
The secret to betting long shots is discovering the groups that are equivalent yet the books need to pay a huge quantity for a bet on one team just to stabilize the betting. It's not the books that are dumb. It's the bettors.
Many times the books will put high lines on great groups in anticipation of the betting patterns. Once they do, most people are not going to consider a group at +300 to have an opportunity. When you find a high payout on a winning team, it's usually an excellent bet. At the minimum, it's worth a better look. You will not win half of them; however you will win more than enough of them to show a betting profit. In the end, isn't that why we play?
Do not be terrified of a high number on exactly what appears to be a long shot. Many times, the books are forced to quell the not so sharp betting public. Just because the books put a number on game doesn't constantly suggest that the chances of a win shown in the number are the real probabilities of the outcome.
You make a great deal of money simply by discovering video games in between reasonably equivalent groups, with lines that pay good money on among them. Don't try to find games where the favorite is relatively specific to win. Try to find video games where the pet is of equal capability to the preferred, yet the books have to supply a strong financial benefit on them to stabilize the betting.
Many times, those so-called long shots will come through with big paydays for those not afraid to pull the trigger and bet on them.
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